Mars -- the magnet
Although it was not an explicitly stated objective, it was tacitly agreed that Mars would be the first planet to be visited by astronauts. Wernher von Braun had written the first realistic proposal for a Mars mission in a 1952 paper, "The Mars Project." In 1969, the Space Task Group called for a manned mission to Mars by 1981.
However, the space program lost momentum in the early 1970's. The space program had been jump-started by the Cold War rivalry with the USSR after the launch of Sputnik. Part of the object of the Moon program was to get there before the Soviets. The first Moon landing took place in 1969, the last in 1972. Three further planned Apollo missions to the Moon were cancelled. The program was very expensive, and Cold War tensions had eased.
The Ride report in 1989 urged a manned mission to Mars; the report of the Augustine Commission in 1990 acknowledged that "the long term magnet for the manned space program is the planet Mars--the human exploration of Mars... Such an undertaking probably must be justified largely on the basis of intangibles."
Recommendations of the Augustine Commission
In 1989, the 20th anniversary of the first Apollo landing, President Bush announced the Space Exploration Initiative.
"The Space Exploration Initiative is a long-term goal and a strategic vision for the U.S. civil space program. Sometime early in the 21st Century, we will establish a lunar outpost and explore the planet Mars.Includes:"SEI is not a typical program in that there are no proposals yet to build hardware for human missions to the Moon and Mars, nor are contractor teams in place to help NASA do so. Today, SEI comprises mission studies, technology development, and life sciences research that will prepare us to meet our long-term goal." -- NASA fact sheet
Many of these goals were incorporated into...
NASA'S 1998 Strategic Plan
NASA Vision:
"NASA is an investment in America's future. As explorers, pioneers, and innovators, we boldly expand frontiers in air and space to inspire and serve America and to benefit the quality of life on Earth."NASA Missions:
SPACE SCIENCE
Robotic Mars Missions
A series of unmanned missions to Mars is planned for the next decade.
Mars Global Surveyor arrived 9/11/97 -- carries spare Mars
Observer camera
Mars Pathfinder arrived 7/4/97
Mars Surveyor
2001 Orbiter
scheduled for launch on April 7, 2001. arrival Oct. 20, 2001,
if launched on schedule.
Future objectives:
"Like the exposed walls of the Grand Canyon on Earth, these layers should reveal a fascinating record of gross fluctuations in the Martian environment, telling us more about why a planet that appears to have been so wet in the past is so cold and dry now."
May help to understand long-term climate changes on Earth.
Failed missions in 1999
Mars Climate Orbiter and Mars Polar Lander both lost
in 1999. MCO burned up in atmosphere due to navigational error (miscommunication
about units MPL probably destroyed because landing legs gave false
reading, and engines shut down too early. Impossible to know for
sure, due to lack of telemetry.
Mars Program Independent Assessment Team report:
"One of the things we kept in mind during the course of our review is that in the conduct of space missions, you get only one strike, not three. Even if thousands of functions are carried out flawlessly, just one mistake can be catastrophic to a mission.... Our review confirmed that mistakes can be prevented by applying experienced oversight, sufficient testing, and independent analysis."The MPIAT report findings included:
"Not since Galileo aimed a small 30-power telescope into the night sky in 1609 has humanity's vision of the Universe been so revolutionized in such a short time span by a single instrument," said Dr. David Leckrone, Hubble Project Scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. "The Hubble Space Telescope has seen further and more clearly than any visible-light telescope before it, and has revolutionized the science of astronomy. It already has earned a place as one of the wonders of the modern world." NASA press release
Will be replaced by Next Generation Space Telescope in 2010.
EARTH SCIENCE
Landsat system.
"Landsat 7 is part of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, a long-term global research program studying human-induced and natural changes in the Earth's global environment." -- NASA press release
Examples:
Terra is the first satellite to monitor daily -- and on a global scale -- how the Earth's atmosphere, lands, oceans, solar radiation and life influence each other. Terra's wide array of measurements will give a comprehensive evaluation of the Earth as a system and will establish a new basis for long-term monitoring of the Earth's climate changes.Satellites can also be used to monitor environmental damage, ozone layer, El Nino, global warming, glacial retreat."Terra is measuring and documenting the Earth's vital signs, many of them for the first time," said Dr. Yoram Kaufman, Terra Project Scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. "Like our taking vital signs to check the state of our own health, these data will help us diagnosis several key aspects of the Earth's health. The data will help us understand our planet, aid in our distinguishing between natural and human-induced changes, and show us how the Earth's climate affects the quality of our lives." NASA press release
INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
First proposed by Reagan in 1984
"Before astronauts can live on the Moon, or travel to Mars, or even spend months in orbit, we need to find out how to counteract the debilitating effects of zero and partial gravity. And the only place to learn about operation for long periods in space is space." ---- NASA Administrator Dan Goldin
research on contained environment and recycling underway.
Became an international project.
"The Space Station is a truly international scientific effort, and a powerful symbol of peaceful cooperation in the post Cold War world. Our new partnership with Russia gives us a bigger, more powerful, more capable space station, and strengthens the international partnership with Canada, Japan, and our European allies. --NASA administrator Dan GoldinShuttle-Mir program
Like the Shuttle, the Space Station can be used to conduct research and industrial activity that requires zero-g environment, and it can do it on an ongoing basis.
Examples: crystallization of AIDS virus proteins or insulin. Metal alloy fabrication. Semiconductor crystal growth. Pharmaceuticals (electrophoresis). Is this enough? How remunerative must the space station be to fly?
"In a country that focuses all too often on the short term, NASA is one of the few agencies dedicated to our future. About $2 billion of NASA's budget is for the space station. 'Sounds like a lot until compared with the $6.3 billion Americans spend on pet food each year, or the $4.3 billion we spend on potato chips, or the $1.4 billion for popcorn,' Goldin said." NASA press release
ISS Modules
MirCorp may revitalize Mir for commercial purposes (news story)
ADVANCED SPACE TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY (SINGLE-STAGE-TO-ORBIT LAUNCH VEHICLES)
Unmanned 3-stage launch vehicles are not reusable. Even the Space Shuttle uses a disposable external fuel tank, and in any case, it turned out to be more expensive and have a much longer turn-around time than expected. Economical space travel requires Single-Stage-to-Orbit vehicle.
Projects under current development
| X-33 | Suborbital test vehicle; Lockheed Martin |
| X-34 | suborbital technology demonstrator |
| X-37 | space flight; Boeing, 2002 |
| X-38 | space station lifeboat |
X-33 and X-34 Reusable Launch Vehicles on "fast track" development "The fast-track X-33 and X-34 programs will feature innovative government/industry partnerships that could lead to workhorse, reusable launch systems for the early 21st century."
The X-33 is a half-scale, suborbital technology demonstrator of a reusable launch vehicle Lockheed Martin calls the "VentureStar™." The $1.2 billion program... is demonstrating advanced technologies that will dramatically increase launch vehicle reliability and lower the cost of putting a pound of payload into space from $10,000 to $1,000.COSTSThe X-33 is scheduled to conduct flight tests beginning in mid-2000. It eventually will fly faster than 13 times the speed of sound and at an altitude of 60 miles to prove its technologies and systems. ... "We plan two seven-day turnarounds and one two-day turnaround during our X-33 flight tests, which begin next year." -- Gene Austin, NASA X-33 Program Manager, NASA press release
| NASA'S ANNUAL BUDGET (selected items from 1995) | |
| Program | Outlays |
| Space shuttle | $3.2 billion |
| Space science | $2 billion |
| Space station | $1.9 billion |
| Mission to Planet Earth | $1.3 billion |
| Aeronautics research | $882 million |
| Mir | $150 million |
| Total | $14 billion |
| For comparison: | |
| U. S. consumption of potato chips | $4.3 billion |
| ANNUAL FEDERAL EXPENDITURES (selected items from 1995) | ||
| Program | Outlays | Remarks |
| Social Security | $333 billion | Social Security etc. revenues $484 billion |
| Defense | $274 billion | |
| Medicare, Medicaid | $246 billion | |
| Interest on debt | $232 billion | |
| Other entitlements | $206 billion | includes food stamps, AFDC,
EITC, veteran's pensions, farm subsidies, federal retirement, etc. |
| Foreign aid | $ 56 billion | 1996 |
| NASA | $14 billion | |
| NIH | $11.2 billion | |
| NSF | $ 3.2 billion | |
| Total expenditures | $1,519 billion | |
| Total income | $1,355 billion | |
| net deficit | $164 billion | Total national debt in 1995: $4.92 trillion |
Total tax revenues incl. state and local are about 32% of GDP (nearly the lowest among industrialized nations)
| COST OF SELECTED INDIVIDUAL PROJECTS | ||
| Project | Cost | Remarks |
| Space station | $100 billion | Estimated cost, as of 2000. International funding. |
| Apollo program | $80 billion | 15 lauches over 11 years. Amount
expressed in 1994 dollars |
| Cassini | $1.4 billion | |
| Mars Observer | $980 million | Lost. Over 10 years, 46¢ /taxpayer /year;
0.007% of budget |
| Mars Pathfinder | $266 million | Faster! Better! Cheaper! |
| Mars Polar Lander | $165 million | Lost. |
| for comparison: | ||
| OSU stadium renovations | $187 million | |
| B-2 stealth bomber | $2.1 billion | each; 21 in current fleet |
| IRS computer system | $4 billion | doesn't work |
| "Big Dig" | $12.4 billion | estimated cost at completion. State and Federal |
| U. S. SPENDING ON RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (1995) | ||
| total spending | $161 billion | 2.5% of GDP; comparable to other developed nations |
| government share | $71 billion | 60% defense, 40% civilian |
Play the nation budget simulation game, and decide for yourself how you would allocate the national budget!
THE MILITARY SPACE PROGRAM: STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE ("STAR WARS")
A "nuclear shield" proposed by President Reagan in 1984, would protect the US against nuclear attack from the Soviet Union, eliminating the need for the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)
space based lasers, particle beams, X-ray lasers, kinetic energy weapons would intercept incoming enemy missiles before they reached impact.
Problems:
"In May 1993, the Department of Defense changed SDIO [Strategic Defense Initiative Organization] to BMDO [Ballistic Missile Defense Organization] in recognition of the radically altered international security environment. This change signified a reorientation of ballistic missile defense policy to place primary emphasis on developing and fielding advanced theater missile defenses."--BMDO fact sheetCurrent projects under development: ($12.7 b/year budget)
similar to 1961 Antarctic treaty:
Vacillating goals lead to cost overruns and waste.
Pushing for quick spectacular results at low cost, to win public support for the program, leads to disaster, and loss of public support.
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